长期护理保险（以下简称“长护险”）制度已成为缓解我国失能老人照护压力、推动康养产业高质量发展的关键政策工具。本研究以我国资本市场154家养老上市公司为研究样本,借助双重差分法构建准自然实验框架,系统评估了长护险政策对各类康养产业财务绩效的影响效应,并验证政策在不同地区和细分领域的差异化表现。研究表明,长护险政策显著提升了试点地区养老企业的盈利能力,使企业资产收益率（ROA）平均提高2.67个百分点,净资产收益率（ROE）提高了6.33个百分点。异质性分析可知,经济发达地区的产业带动效应、服务创新水平和财务改善幅度均显著高于中西部试点地区;在细分领域,医疗护理服务较为突出,ROA提升了4.17个百分点。研究表明,长护险政策主要通过需求拉动与成本优化双重效应发挥作用,技术密集型养老企业与经济发达地区凭借基础优势受益更大。本研究在一定程度上丰富了长护险对康养产业影响的量化研究成果,为制度优化、产业发展引导及企业运营决策提供实践参考。

The long-term care insurance (LTCI) system has become a key policy tool for alleviating the care pressure on disabled elderly people in China and promoting the high-quality development of the health and elderly care industry. This study takes 154 elderly care listed companies in China's capital market as the research sample, and uses the difference-in-differences method to construct a quasi-natural experiment framework to systematically evaluate the impact of the LTCI policy on the financial performance of various elderly care industries, and verify the differentiated performance of the policy in different regions and sub-sectors. The research shows that the LTCI pilot policy has significantly improved the profitability of elderly care enterprises in the pilot areas, increasing the average ROA by 2.27 percentage points and ROE by 6.33 percentage points. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that the industrial driving effect, service innovation level, and financial improvement amplitude in economically developed regions are significantly higher than those in the central and western pilot areas. Among the sub-sectors, medical care services stand out, with ROA increasing by 4.17 percentage points. The research indicates that the LTCI policy mainly exerts its influence through the dual effects of demand pull and cost optimization. Technology-intensive elderly care enterprises and economically developed regions benefit more due to their inherent advantages. To some extent, this study enriches the quantitative research results on the impact of the LTCI system on the health and elderly care industry and provides practical references for policy optimization, industry development guidance, and enterprise operation decisions.