长期护理保险筹资水平研究&#x02014;&#x02014;以吉林省为例

扎衣拉&#x000b7;翁阿勒江; 温俊梅; 杨彤彤; 甘晓成

doi:10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2025.6.010

中国医疗保险 ›› 2025, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (6) : 76-84. DOI: 10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2025.6.010

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长期护理保险筹资水平研究——以吉林省为例

扎衣拉·翁阿勒江^1,2, 温俊梅^1,2, 杨彤彤^1,2, 甘晓成^1,2

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Study on the Financing Level of Long-Term Care Insurance——Taking Jilin Province as an Example

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摘要

目的: 发展长期护理保险制度对于提升吉林省（以下简称吉林）社会保障水平和完善老年人福利体系具有重要意义。方法: 基于2014—2023年吉林人口与经济发展相关数据,运用国际劳工组织（International Labour Organization, ILO）筹资模型与GM（1,1）灰色预测模型相结合的方法,科学测算出在长期护理保险待遇支付比例分别为65%、70%和75%三种方案下,2024—2030年职工缴费比例和城乡居民人年均缴费金额区间分别为0.73%~1.03%、232.56~465.67元。结果: 吉林长期护理保险筹资水平相较于我国其他已开展试点的城市,处于合理且相对较低的区间。老年长期护理需求人数和成本逐年攀升,长期护理保险依附于基本医疗保险体系运行不具备可持续性。结论: 建议尽快全面铺开吉林老年长期护理保险制度,建立相对独立的多渠道筹资机制,科学测算并动态调整筹资水平,不断满足吉林老年人对长期护理保险日益增长的需求,保障长期护理保险制度高质量、可持续发展。

Abstract

Objective: The development of the long-term care insurance system is of great significance to enhance the level of social security and improve the welfare system for the elderly in Jilin Province. Methods: Based on the data related to the population and economic development of Jilin Province from 2014 to 2023, we applied the International Labour Organization (ILO) financing model combined with the GM (1,1) grey prediction model, and scientifically estimated that under the three scenarios of long-term care insurance benefit payment ratio of 65%, 70% and 75% respectively, the employees’ contribution ratio from 2024 to 2030 is 0.73%~1.03% and the urban and rural residents’ annual average payment is 232.56~465.67 yuan. Results: The financing level of long-term care insurance in Jilin Province is within a reasonable and relatively low interval compared to other cities in China that have launched pilot programs. The number of elderly long-term care needs and costs is rising year by year, and long-term care insurance is not sustainable when it is dependent on the basic medical insurance system. Conclusion: The long-term care insurance system for the elderly in Jilin Province should be rolled out as soon as possible, a relatively independent multi-channel financing mechanism should be established, and the level of financing should be scientifically measured and dynamically adjusted to continuously meet the growing demand for long-term care insurance among the elderly in Jilin Province and to ensure the high-quality and sustainable development of the long-term care insurance system.

导出引用

扎衣拉·翁阿勒江, 温俊梅, 杨彤彤, 甘晓成. 长期护理保险筹资水平研究——以吉林省为例[J]. 中国医疗保险. 2025, 0(6): 76-84 https://doi.org/10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2025.6.010

Study on the Financing Level of Long-Term Care Insurance——Taking Jilin Province as an Example[J]. China Health Insurance. 2025, 0(6): 76-84 https://doi.org/10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2025.6.010

中图分类号： F840.684 C913.7

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