目的: 本文旨在估算我国抗肿瘤药物的创新弹性,评估宏观环境和政策干预对于抗肿瘤药物创新弹性的影响,并提出相关政策建议。方法: 通过构建面板数据回归模型,基于2010—2024年我国抗肿瘤药物市场销售额与抗肿瘤创新药物上市等多源数据,使用普通最小二乘法（OLS）进行回归分析。结果: 根据滞后期不同,我国抗肿瘤药物的创新弹性为0.02~0.29,集采政策对于创新的影响并不明确,而医保谈判准入政策对于创新有显著正面影响,同时宏观环境会影响创新。结论: 我国抗肿瘤药物与国际上药物创新弹性研究结果相近,显示我国医药产业的市场驱动创新机制已经较为成熟,应当进一步推动医保目录调整工作并加强集采对于创新影响的研究,以鼓励生物医药产业高质量发展。
Abstract
Objective: This paper aims to estimate the innovation elasticity of anti-cancer drugs in China, assess the impact of macro-environment and policy interventions on innovation elasticity, and provide relevant policy recommendations. Methods: A panel data model was constructed using multiple data sources, including sales of anti-cancer drugs in China from 2010 to 2024 and the launch of innovative anti-cancer drugs, etc. The regression analysis was conducted using the ordinary least squares method. Results: Depending on the lag period, the innovation elasticity of anti-cancer drugs in China ranged from 0.02 to 0.29. The impact of volume-based procurement policies on innovation was unclear, while the national reimbursement drug list negotiation and access policy had a significant positive effect on innovation. Additionally, the macro-environment was found to influence innovation. Conclusion: The findings of this study on the innovation elasticity of anti-tumor drugs in China are similar to international studies of the same type, indicating that the market-driven innovation mechanism in China's pharmaceutical industry has become relatively mature. It is recommended to further promote adjustments to the national reimbursement drug list and strengthen research on the impact of volume-based procurement on innovation, to encourage the high-quality development of the biopharmaceutical industry.
关键词
创新弹性 /
抗肿瘤药物 /
市场规模
Key words
innovation elasticity /
anti-cancer drugs /
market size
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基金
上海市科学技术委员会“我国生物医药产业创新激励视角下国家医保目录调整优化策略研究”（24692106700）
