目的: 预测新疆居民长期护理保险需求,分析城镇、农村居民长期护理保险需求的影响因素,为全面推广长期护理保险制度提供参考。方法: 采用GM（1,1）灰色关联预测模型对新疆居民长期护理保险需求进行预测,基于灰色关联分析模型实证分析不同影响因素对城镇、农村居民长期护理保险需求的影响程度。结果: 2024—2030年,新疆居民长期护理保险需求人数预计从7.61万人攀升至9.17万人。老年人口抚养比、基本医疗保险参保人数占比是影响新疆居民长期护理保险需求的重要非经济因素（关联度值≥0.56）。利率和城市居民消费价格指数（关联度值≥0.75）、农村居民养老金和年人均可支配收入（关联度值≥0.7）分别是影响城镇、农村居民长期护理保险需求的主要经济因素。结论: 2024—2030年,新疆居民长期护理保险需求显著增长,但长期护理保险政策尚不健全。建议统筹规划长期护理保险政策,科学合理设计长期护理保险筹资与给付机制,不断满足居民日益增长的长期护理保险需求。
Abstract
Objective: The paper attempts to predict the demand for long-term care insurance among residents in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, analyze the influencing factors of long-term care insurance demand among urban and rural residents, and provide a reference for the comprehensive promotion of the long-term care insurance system. Method: The GM (1,1) grey correlation prediction model was used to predict the long-term care insurance demand of Xinjiang residents. Based on the grey correlation analysis model, the impact of different influencing factors on the long-term care insurance demand of urban and rural residents in Xinjiang was empirically analyzed. Results: From 2024 to 2030, the demand for long-term care insurance among residents in Xinjiang is expected to climb from 76100 people to 91700 people. The elderly dependency ratio and the proportion of people participating in basic medical insurance are important non-economic factors that affect the long-term care insurance demands of Xinjiang residents (correlation value ≥ 0.56). Interest rates and urban consumer price index (correlation value ≥ 0.75), as well as rural residents' pension and annual per capita disposable income (correlation value ≥ 0.7) are the main economic factors affecting the long-term care insurance demand of urban and rural residents. Conclusion: From 2024 to 2030, the demand for long-term care insurance among residents in Xinjiang has significantly increased, but the long-term care insurance policies need to be improved. It is recommended to coordinate and plan long-term care insurance policies, scientifically and reasonably design financing and payment mechanisms for long-term care insurance, and continuously meet the growing demands for long-term care insurance among residents.
关键词
长期护理保险 /
需求预测 /
新疆
Key words
long-term care insurance /
demand prediction /
Xinjiang
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基金
国家社会科学基金资助项目“脱贫攻坚后续政策视野下的新疆贫困地区城乡居民基本养老保险创新改革研究”（20BGL005）
