目的: 分析药品生产企业在国家组织药品集中带量采购竞争机制下是否中选及中选价格降幅的影响因素,探讨集中带量采购政策效果和实施建议。方法: 选取第二批至第五批及第七批至第九批集中带量采购覆盖品种进行分析,以企业是否中选和中选价格降幅为因变量,采用Logistic回归模型分析企业是否中选及中选价格降幅的影响因素。结果: 原研药企业中选概率低于仿制药企业,但中选后大幅降价概率更高;自产原料药企业中选概率和大幅降价概率均高于非自产原料药企业;随着企业集采中选品种数、潜在竞争企业数以及潜在自产原料药竞争企业数的增加,企业大幅降价概率提高。结论: 药品集中带量采购促进了原研药“专利悬崖”现象的产生,突显了自产原料药企业的竞争优势,有助于形成合理的药品价格形成机制。
Abstract
Objective: The paper analyzes the factors affecting whether a drug enterprise wins a bid or not and price reduction in national volume-based procurement (NVBP), thereby exploring the effect of NVBP and the recommendations for policy implementation. Methods: We select the varieties from the 2nd to 5th and 7th to 9th rounds of NVBP for analysis, and take whether an enterprise wins a bid or not and price reduction as dependent variables. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the impact on the two dependent variables above. Results: Original drug enterprises have lower probability of bid success but higher probability of major price reduction. Self-produced active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) enterprises have higher probabilities of winning bids and major price reduction than others. As the number of enterprise's bid-winning varieties in NVBP, the number of potential competitors, and the number of potential self-produced API competitors increase, the probability of major price reduction increases. Conclusions: NVBP can promote the occurrence of the “patent cliff”, highlight the competitive advantage of self-produced API enterprises, and contribute to the rationalization of the drug pricing mechanism.
关键词
集中带量采购 /
价格 /
影响因素 /
Logistic回归
Key words
volume-based procurement /
price /
influencing factors /
logistic regression
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