近年来,通过多地试点,我国已经在开展长期护理保险方面积累了一定的实践经验,但筹资问题仍是重点和难点问题。与此同时,我国区域间经济社会发展不平衡,各地在长期护理保险筹资中面临的问题和难度不同。因此,本文以海南省为例,分析区域长期护理保险需求规模情况和筹资路径。研究发现,伴随着人口老龄化程度的持续加深,海南省60岁及以上老年失能人数将持续增加,筹资负担不断加重。预计到2050年,海南省失能人数共计47.13万人,其中,重度失能群体规模超过6万人。在需求方面,若长期护理保险的保障范围覆盖中度和重度失能人群,到2050年海南省长期护理保险支付需求规模将达到33.5亿元。在筹资方面,职工、居民、企业、财政等主体的负担将会不断增加,且随着时间的推移,增幅不断扩大。

In recent years, through multiple pilot projects, China has accumulated some practical experience in developing long-term care insurance, but the financing is still a key and difficult issue. At the same time, China's interregional economic and social development is uneven, and various regions face different problems and difficulties in financing long-term care insurance. Therefore, this article takes Hainan Province as an example to analyze the demand scale and the financing path of regional long-term care insurance. The study found that with the continuous deepening of population aging, the number of disabled elderly aged 60 and above in Hainan Province will continue to increase, and the funding burden will continue to increase. It is estimated that by 2050, the total number of disabled people in Hainan Province will be 471300, including more than 60000 severely disabled groups. In terms of demand, if long-term care insurance covers moderately and severely disabled people, the scale of long-term care insurance demand in Hainan Province will reach 3.35 billion yuan by 2050. In terms of financing, the burden on employees, residents, enterprises, finance and other entities will continue to increase, and the growth rate will continue to expand over time.