目的 探讨我国人口老龄化与商业健康保险需求之间的关系。方法 以2007年—2018年中国31个省、市、自治区的面板数据为基础,运用变系数模型进行实证分析。结果 （1）人口老龄化对商业健康保险需求具有显著性影响,但并非简单的线性关系,两者之间呈U型特征。2007年-2013年人口老龄化抑制商业健康保险需求,但跨过2014年“拐点”后促进商业健康保险需求的增加。（2）人均GDP、居民医疗保健支出、社会医疗保险对商业健康保险需求有正向影响作用。结论 从供给侧不断优化健康保险产品和服务,加强商业健康保险政策制度设计的前瞻性,促进社会医疗保险与商业健康保险、养老保险和商业健康保险协同发展。
Abstract
Objective: The paper explores the relationship between China's aging population, the demand for commercial health insurance. Method: Based on the panel data of31provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions in China from2007to2018, the variable coefficient model is used for empirical analysis. Results: The aging of the population has a significant impact on the demand for commercial health insurance, but it is not a simple linear relationship, but a U-shaped.relationship. The aging of the population from2007to2013inhibited the demand for commercial health insurance, but after the “turning point” in2014, the demand for commercial health insurance has increased.Per capita GDP, residents' health care expenditure, social medical insurance have a positive effect on the demand for commercial health insurance. Conclusion: We should continue to optimize health insurance products, services from the supply side, strengthen the foresight of the design of commercial health insurance policies, systems, promote the coordinated development of social medical insurance, commercial health insurance, as well as endowment insurance, commercial health insurance
关键词
商业健康保险 /
老龄化 /
变系数模型 /
U型关系
Key words
commercial health insurance /
aging /
variable coefficient model /
U-shaped relationship
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基金
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金“基于 PSTR 模型的我国农村医疗保险的反贫困效应研究”（19YJAZH043）
