Objective: This paper aims to estimate the innovation elasticity of anti-cancer drugs in China, assess the impact of macro-environment and policy interventions on innovation elasticity, and provide relevant policy recommendations. Methods: A panel data model was constructed using multiple data sources, including sales of anti-cancer drugs in China from 2010 to 2024 and the launch of innovative anti-cancer drugs, etc. The regression analysis was conducted using the ordinary least squares method. Results: Depending on the lag period, the innovation elasticity of anti-cancer drugs in China ranged from 0.02 to 0.29. The impact of volume-based procurement policies on innovation was unclear, while the national reimbursement drug list negotiation and access policy had a significant positive effect on innovation. Additionally, the macro-environment was found to influence innovation. Conclusion: The findings of this study on the innovation elasticity of anti-tumor drugs in China are similar to international studies of the same type, indicating that the market-driven innovation mechanism in China's pharmaceutical industry has become relatively mature. It is recommended to further promote adjustments to the national reimbursement drug list and strengthen research on the impact of volume-based procurement on innovation, to encourage the high-quality development of the biopharmaceutical industry.
Key words
innovation elasticity /
anti-cancer drugs /
market size
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