The Influencing Factors of Price Reduction in National Volume-Based Procurement&#x02014;&#x02014;Based on Logistic Regression

doi:10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2024.5.017

China Health Insurance ›› 2024, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (5) : 116-121. DOI: 10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2024.5.017

The Influencing Factors of Price Reduction in National Volume-Based Procurement——Based on Logistic Regression

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Abstract

Objective: The paper analyzes the factors affecting whether a drug enterprise wins a bid or not and price reduction in national volume-based procurement (NVBP), thereby exploring the effect of NVBP and the recommendations for policy implementation. Methods: We select the varieties from the 2nd to 5th and 7th to 9th rounds of NVBP for analysis, and take whether an enterprise wins a bid or not and price reduction as dependent variables. Logistic regression model was used to analyze the impact on the two dependent variables above. Results: Original drug enterprises have lower probability of bid success but higher probability of major price reduction. Self-produced active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) enterprises have higher probabilities of winning bids and major price reduction than others. As the number of enterprise's bid-winning varieties in NVBP, the number of potential competitors, and the number of potential self-produced API competitors increase, the probability of major price reduction increases. Conclusions: NVBP can promote the occurrence of the “patent cliff”, highlight the competitive advantage of self-produced API enterprises, and contribute to the rationalization of the drug pricing mechanism.

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volume-based procurement / price / influencing factors / logistic regression

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The Influencing Factors of Price Reduction in National Volume-Based Procurement——Based on Logistic Regression[J]. China Health Insurance. 2024, 0(5): 116-121 https://doi.org/10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2024.5.017

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