The balance of income and expenditure of long-term care insurance fund is an important condition to realize the sustainable development of the system. This paper takes Shanghai, which adopts proportional financing, and Suzhou, which adopts fixed amount financing in the Yangtze River Delta region, as the research object, and uses the GM (1,1) to forecast their fund balance in the next ten years from 2023 to 2032 under the condition that the policy remains unchanged. Through empirical analysis, this paper holds that first, the annual growth rate of fund income in Shanghai is significantly higher than that of expenditure, resulting in a balance rate of 80% to 97%, which is obviously high. Second, Suzhou has a slightly higher annual growth rate of fund income than expenditure. The fund balance rate is within a reasonable range of 28% to 35%, and the income and expenditure is closer to the balance state. The difference in the fund balance ratio between the two cities may be influenced by factors such as financing and benefit payments. This article suggests adopting a mixed financing form, establishing a multi-channel independent financing mechanism, improving the long-term care insurance benefit payment mechanism, avoiding fund waste, and providing a reference for the sustainable development of the long-term care insurance system.
Key words
long-term care insurance /
fund balance /
GM(1,1) /
financing form
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