Calculation and Analysis on Premium of Long-Term Care Insurance Under the Pay-as-You-Go System

doi:10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2023.11.007

China Health Insurance ›› 2023, Vol. 0 ›› Issue (11) : 56-65. DOI: 10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2023.11.007

Observation & Discussion

Calculation and Analysis on Premium of Long-Term Care Insurance Under the Pay-as-You-Go System

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Abstract

The pay-as-you-go system will be the main direction for the future development of long-term care insurance in China. It has the advantages of social risk sharing and intergenerational equity, but faces the potential risk of financial unsustainability. This article uses the CLASS cross-sectional data from 2014 to 2020 and the Barthel Index rating scale to measure the disability rates of the elderly population by age, gender, and level, applies the population projection software PADIS-INT to predict the size, structure and trend of China's population, and finally predicts the annual premium and the contribution burden level of long-term care insurance from 2020 to 2050 based on the principle of balanced budget. The results show that under the two different schemes of paying population aged from 16 to 60 and from 40 to 60, the annual premium is in the range of [380, 1546] yuan and [776, 3258] yuan respectively, and the contribution burden level is in the range of [1.06%, 1.26%] and [2.14%, 2.64%] respectively. It indicates that if the premium of long-term care insurance is at an appropriate level, it can provide favorable conditions for expanding the coverage and improving the participation intention.

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long-term care insurance / pay-as-you-go system / premium / actuarial balance / long-term forecast

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Calculation and Analysis on Premium of Long-Term Care Insurance Under the Pay-as-You-Go System[J]. China Health Insurance. 2023, 0(11): 56-65 https://doi.org/10.19546/j.issn.1674-3830.2023.11.007

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