Reasonable and stable financing mechanism is an important prerequisite for the sustainable development of healthcare security system. Studying and constructing the individual payment mechanism of residents' medical insurance is an important content of establishing a stable, long-term and sustainable financing growth mechanism. Due to the lack of continuous and complete medical insurance data, based on the previous Grey correlation analysis results, this paper attempts to use the statistical model to establish the mathematical relationship between the relevant factors and the individual payment level of insured residents, in order to provide a basis for the state to determine the individual payment level of residents' medical insurance within 2 to 3 years.