我国经济进入新发展阶段,需要不断扩大国内需求、激发消费潜能。随着国内老龄人口的增多,激发老年群体的消费潜能将对促进国内大循环有积极的作用。研究发现老年人的储蓄率会随着年龄增加而提高,其主要原因是为了预防健康风险冲击。而长期护理保险通过风险分散机制能够有效缓解健康风险冲击,对家庭消费支出行为产生影响。本研究利用CFPS（2012—2018年）数据,基于健康风险视角,探讨了长期护理保险政策对家庭消费支出决策的影响。分析结果显示,长期护理保险制度的实施使老年家庭储蓄率下降了原来水平的9.7%,同时显著增加了消费支出,有效促进了老年家庭消费,其中健康消费和文娱消费显著增加;健康风险越大,长期护理保险对于促进老年家庭消费的效果越明显。此外,长期护理保险政策对城镇以及高收入家庭消费的促进作用更显著。
Abstract
The Chinese economy has entered a new stage of development, which requires expanding domestic demand and stimulating consumption potential. As the aging population increases, stimulating the consumption potential of the elderly will have a positive impact on promoting the domestic cycle. Studies have found that the saving rate of the elderly increases with age, and the main reason is to prevent health risk. Long-term care insurance can effectively alleviate health risk and affect household consumption expenditure behavior. From the perspective of health risk, the study applies the CFPS (2012-2018) data to explore the impact of long-term care insurance policies on household consumption expenditure decisions. The analysis results show that the implementation of the long-term care insurance system has reduced the savings rate of elderly households by 9.7%, while significantly increasing consumption expenditure, effectively promoting elderly household consumption, with a significant increase in health and entertainment consumption. The greater the health risk, the more significant the effect of long-term care insurance on promoting consumption in elderly households would be. In addition, long-term care insurance policy has a more significant effect on increasing the consumption in urban and high-income households.
关键词
长期护理 /
老年家庭 /
健康风险 /
消费支出
Key words
long-term care /
elderly households /
health risk /
consumption expenditure
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.title}}
{{custom_sec.content}}
参考文献
[1] 联合国秘书处经济和社会事务部人口司.世界人口展望2019[R].2019.
[2] 党俊武.中国城乡老年人生活状况调查报告[M].社会科学文献出版社,2018.
[3] 于新亮,黄俊铭,康琢,等.老年照护保障与女性劳动参与——基于中国农村长期护理保险试点的政策效果评估[J].中国农村经济,2021,443(11):125-144.
[4] 王贞,封进.长期护理保险对医疗费用的替代效应及不同补偿模式的比较[J].经济学(季刊),2021,21(02):557-576.
[5] 朱铭来,何敏,马智苏.长期护理保险的模式选择与体系构建研究[J].中国人口科学,2023,214(01):3-20.
[6] 荆涛,邢慧霞,王文卿.长期护理保险政策促进劳动就业效应研究——来自11个试点城市的经验数据[J].价格理论与实践,2021(06):23-29+43.
[7] 孙凤.预防性储蓄理论与中国居民消费行为[J].南开经济研究,2001(01):54-58.
[8] MIRER T W.The wealth-age relation among the aged[J].The American economic review, 1979, 69(3): 435-443.
[9] DE NARDI M, FRENCH E, JONES J B, et al.Why do couples and singles save during retirement?[R].National Bureau of Economic Research, 2021.
[10] AMERIKS J, CAPLIN A, LAUFER S, et al.The joy of giving or assisted living? Using strategic surveys to separate public care aversion from bequest motives[J].The journal of finance, 2011,66(2): 519-561.
[11] HURD M D.Research on the elderly: Economic status, retirement, and consumption and saving[J].Journal of economic literature, 1990, 28(2): 565-637.
[12] ALESSIE R, LUSARDI A, KAPTEYN A.Saving after retirement: evidence from three different surveys[J].Labour economics, 1999, 6(2): 277-310.
[13] 汪伟,刘玉飞,王文鹏.长寿的宏观经济效应研究进展[J].经济学动态,2018,691(09):128-143.
[14] 王弟海,崔小勇,龚六堂.健康在经济增长和经济发展中的作用——基于文献研究的视角[J].经济学动态,2015,654(08):107-127.
[15] TAKASHI OSHIO, AKIKO SATO OISHI, SATOSHI SHIMIZUTANI.Social security reforms and labour force participation of the elderly in Japan[J].The Japanese economic review, 2011,62(2): 248-271.
[16] 尹志超,刘泰星,张诚.农村劳动力流动对家庭储蓄率的影响[J].中国工业经济,2020,382(01):24-42.
[17] 昌忠泽,姜珂.储蓄动机与老年人储蓄之谜——兼论政府支出的调节效应[J].经济学动态,2021(04):68-87.
[18] 李新荣,吴涵,史宇鹏.性别角色观念与家庭消费结构——基于中国家庭追踪调查数据的研究[J].中央财经大学学报,2023(08):73-90.
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“长期照护服务的供给研究”（17BJY216）
